Modelling the relationship between demography, peace and security

Abstract
In this work, we present a multidimensional analysis of peace and security and its determinants (military expenditure, schooling for young people, demographic dependency, etc.). We then analyse the sociodemographic factors that foster insecurity in the Sahel. Lastly, we determine the explanatory factors behind the level of peace and security in Africa, taking spatial correlation into account. The results show that the level of peace and security is positively correlated with the secondary school enrolment rate, the urbanization rate and the agricultural performance of a country. Furthermore, the level of peace and security is negatively correlated with the demographic dependency ratio, the level of economic inequality and the unemployment rate among young people. A country classification produced three groups of countries. The first group comprises countries with a high level of security, mostly Western countries. The second group of countries has a medium level of security. There are no West African countries in this group. The third and final group of countries have a low level of security. These countries have a higher demographic dependency ratio (75 per cent compared with a general average of 47 per cent) and a youth unemployment rate that is 10 points higher than the general average (27.71 per cent compared with 17.86 per cent). Finally, their secondary school enrolment rate is half the general average (36.94 per cent compared with 72.18 per cent). The results of the modelling for the Sahel countries show that youth unemployment (especially among young men), migration and the youthfulness of the population had an impact on the increase in insecurity in the Sahel. On the other hand, increasing the share of gross domestic product (GDP) allocated to health expenditure leads to a decrease in insecurity in the Sahel.
Spatial modelling of peace and security in Africa shows that the spatial autoregressive coefficient has a significance threshold of 5 per cent. All other things being equal, an increase in the level of peace and security in one country thus has a positive effect on the level of peace and security in the countries with which it shares common borders, through the contagion effect. The other determinants of peace and security in Africa are: the demographic dependency ratio, forest cover, the agricultural performance of a country, the level of democracy, the secondary school enrolment rate and access to the sea.
Keywords: insecurity, peace, demography, Africa, Sahel, Panel, Spatial

Source: United Nations Population Fund

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